BCV Balance Sheet & Anti-Hyperinflation Strategy Dashboard

Annual Inflation (YoY)

238%

IMF projects 548% for full 2025

Monthly Inflation (May '25)

22.5%

YTD accumulated: 103%

International Reserves

$10.8B

42% gold, 42% SDR, 12% deposits

GDP (Est. 2025)

$82.8B

80% decline since 2013 ($350B)

Exchange Rate (Official)

96.86

Bs/USD | Market: 138.98 (48% gap)

Monetary Base

Bs 179.5B

+211% YoY growth

Oil Production

1.05M

bpd | Down from 2.9M in 2013

External Debt

$154B

193% of GDP | Default since 2017

Gold Reserves

53 tons

-13% in 2024 | ~$6.95B value

BCV Balance Sheet

6.59T

VES Thousand (Nov 2025)

Poverty Rate

~90%

Up from ~30% in 2013

Emigration

7.7M

25% of total population

Crisis Severity Index

Inflation Severity

85/100

CB Independence

5/100

Reserve Adequacy

18/100

FX Market Freedom

22/100

Fiscal Discipline

12/100

Debt Sustainability

8/100

Oil Sector Health

30/100

Institutional Trust

7/100

GDP Collapse: 2013-2025 (USD Billions)

Oil Production Decline (Million bpd)

Total Assets (Mar '25)

1,424.1T VED

+10.2% from Feb 2025

Total Liabilities (Feb '25)

1,182.1T VED

+10.3% from Jan 2025

Equity (Mar '25)

13.4T VED

+4.4% from Feb 2025

Leverage Ratio

106:1

Extremely overleveraged

BCV Balance Sheet - Reconstructed from Official Data (VED Trillions)

ASSETS	Amount (T VED)	% of Total
Foreign Exchange Assets	1,424.1	~100%
Monetary Gold (~53 tonnes)	~598.0	42.0%
SDR Holdings (IMF)	~598.0	42.0%
Foreign Bank Deposits	~170.9	12.0%
Other Foreign Assets	~57.0	4.0%
Domestic Assets	---
Government Securities (PDVSA/Republic bonds)	Est. significant	---
Loans to Public Sector	Est. very large	---
Other Domestic Assets	---	---
LIABILITIES & EQUITY	Amount (T VED)	% of Total
Monetary Liabilities
Currency in Circulation (Monetary Base)	~179.5*	---
Bank Reserves at BCV	---	---
Foreign Exchange Liabilities	1,182.1	---
Government FX Deposits	---	---
SDR Allocations (IMF)	---	---
Other FX Liabilities	---	---
Other Liabilities
Securities Issued (BCV bonds)	---	---
TOTAL EQUITY	13.4	~0.9%

* Monetary base of Bs 179.5B from CEDICE/BCV May 2025. Full BCV balance sheet itemization is not publicly disclosed with granularity; values reconstructed from CEIC, BCV published totals, and reserve composition data. "---" = not disclosed.

Reserve Composition (% of $10.8B)

BCV Balance Sheet Growth (VES T, 2025)

Critical Balance Sheet Findings

CRITICAL: Equity = 0.9% of Assets

Leverage ratio of ~106:1 means the BCV is technically insolvent. Any 1% decline in asset values wipes out equity entirely. Normal central banks operate at 10-30:1.

CRITICAL: 42% of Reserves in Gold (Illiquid)

Much of the gold is held abroad (Bank of England) under legal dispute or has already been swapped/sold. Only ~$4.5B is truly liquid, covering less than 2 months of imports.

WARNING: Monetary Base +211% YoY

Base money/liquidity ratio of 69% indicates the state (not private credit) is the primary driver of money creation. This is the core engine of inflation.

WARNING: 48% Exchange Rate Gap

Official rate (96.86 Bs/$) vs market rate (138.98 Bs/$) creates massive rent-seeking opportunities and resource misallocation. Gap is 2nd highest on record.

Monetary Base (M0)

Bs 179.5B

+211% YoY | +6.8% monthly

Liquidity (M2)

Bs 260.5B

+122% YoY | ~$3B (3.3% GDP)

M0/M2 Ratio

69%

State-driven money creation

Active Interest Rate

58.59%

Passive (DPF 90d): 36.00%

Inflation Rate by Year (%)

Monthly Inflation 2025 (%)

Monetary Base vs Inflation (Index, Jan '25 = 100)

Exchange Rate Evolution 2025 (Bs/USD)

International Reserves

$10.85B

+$580M YTD | +20% H1 (UNDP)

Gold Reserves

$6.95B

53 tonnes | -13% in 2024

External Debt

$154B

193% of GDP | In default

EMBI Risk Premium

170.86

pts | vs Argentina 6.78

Trade Balance (US, Jan-May)

+$568M

Exports $1.63B | Imports $1.06B

Oil Price (Merey)

$56.72

/bbl | -24% YoY

International Reserves History (USD Billions)

Debt-to-GDP vs Peer Countries (%)

Brazil's Plano Real (1994): The Greatest Stabilization in History

Brazil tried 5 failed stabilization plans before the Real Plan worked. The genius was understanding that Brazilian hyperinflation was inertial — contracts, wages, and prices were automatically indexed to past inflation, creating a self-fulfilling spiral. Instead of freezing prices (which failed every time), the architects created the URV (Unidade Real de Valor) — a virtual unit of account indexed to the dollar — that gradually replaced the cruzeiro in people's minds before the currency swap even happened. By the time the Real was introduced on July 1, 1994, inflation expectations were already broken.

5 Failed Stabilization Plans (1986-1993)

Plan	Year	Method	Initial Result	Why It Failed	Outcome
Cruzado Plan	Feb 1986	Price/wage freeze + new currency (1:1000)	0% inflation for 3 months	No fiscal adjustment; wages rose 20-30%; public spending at 8% GDP deficit	300%+ by 1987
Bresser Plan	Jun 1987	Price freeze + partial wage indexation	Single-digit monthly briefly	Fiscal targets missed; no credibility after Cruzado failure	1,000%+ by 1988
Verao Plan	Jan 1989	Price freeze + new currency (cruzado novo)	Brief deceleration	Same formula as Cruzado; population no longer believed freezes	1,783% by end 1989
Collor Plan I	Mar 1990	Confiscated 80% of bank deposits + price freeze	84%/mo to 3%/mo in one month	Massive GDP contraction (-4.3%); destroyed trust in banking system forever	2,948% in 1990
Collor Plan II	Jan 1991	Interest rate freeze + financial reforms	Temporary slowdown	Political crisis; Collor impeached for corruption; no credibility	2,000%+ by 1993
Plano Real	Jul 1994	URV unit of account + fiscal fund + gradual transition	50.7% to 0.96%/mo in 3 months	N/A — IT WORKED	Permanent success

Phase 1: Fiscal Adjustment (Late 1993 - Feb 1994)

Social Emergency Fund (FSE)

Constitutional amendment to suspend rigid revenue earmarking that forced spending regardless of fiscal conditions
Revenue improvement of ~2% of GDP in 1994 — created fiscal space so the government didn't need to print money
Key lesson: unlike all 5 failed plans, this one fixed the fiscal problem FIRST, before touching the currency
Import tariffs reduced from 32% (1990) to ~13% (1995) — cheap imports competed with domestic goods, suppressing price increases

RESULT: Government could finance itself without printing money — the precondition for everything else

Phase 2: URV — The Virtual Currency (Mar 1 - Jun 30, 1994)

Break Inertial Expectations

URV introduced Mar 1, 1994: initial value 647.50 cruzeiros reais, pegged 1:1 to the US dollar
Dual-price system: all goods priced in BOTH URV and cruzeiros. Pay in cruzeiros, think in URVs
Daily adjustment: URV/cruzeiro rate updated daily. By May 1994: 1 URV = ~2,750 cruzeiros (cruzeiro hyperinflating, URV stable)
Voluntary adoption: 70%+ of retail prices shifted to URV denomination within months — no freeze required
Contracts repriced: incentives given to rewrite old indexed contracts in URV terms, breaking the backward-looking chain

GENIUS: People's reference point shifted from a hyperinflating currency to a stable one BEFORE the swap happened

Phase 3: The Real (July 1, 1994)

Currency Swap Day

Conversion: 1 Real = 1 URV = 2,750 cruzeiros reais = ~1 USD
Expectations already anchored: since people were already thinking in URVs (= dollars), the swap was psychologically painless
Monetary tightening: Selic rates set above 40% to defend the new currency
Crawling peg: Real maintained near 1:1 with USD initially, then allowed controlled daily depreciations of ~0.6%/month
No price freeze: unlike all previous plans, prices were free to adjust — the key to public trust

RESULT: June 50.7%/mo → July 7.0% → August 2.0% → September 0.96% — HYPERINFLATION KILLED

Brazil Monthly Inflation: The Plano Real Moment

Brazil Annual Inflation (Log Scale)

Inflation Drop

50.7%

→ 0.96%/mo in 90 days

GDP Growth (1994)

+6.0%

Stabilization boosted growth

Real Wage Gain

+18.7%

Formal sector 1994-95

Poverty Reduction

30→21%

National rate by 1995

Informal Wage Gain

+38.4%

Poor gained the most

Privatizations

$23.5B

Including Telecom ($19B in 1998)

What Venezuela Must Learn from Brazil

Lesson 1: Fix Fiscal FIRST

All 5 failed plans touched the currency without fixing the deficit. The Real Plan spent 6 months on fiscal adjustment before the URV was even introduced. Venezuela must stop BCV monetary financing before any currency reform.

Lesson 2: Don't Freeze Prices — Change the Reference Point

Price freezes fail because they suppress symptoms without fixing causes. The URV changed how people THOUGHT about prices. In Venezuela, USDT is already playing this role organically — 80% of crypto transactions are stablecoins.

Lesson 3: Gradual Transition Beats Shock

The 4-month URV period let people adjust voluntarily. 70% of prices migrated without coercion. Venezuela's de facto dollarization (34% of retail in stablecoins) is already the "URV phase" — formalize it.

Lesson 4: Institutional Follow-Through

Brazil passed the Fiscal Responsibility Law (2000), adopted inflation targeting (1999), and granted CB independence (2021). Venezuela needs the same institutional scaffolding to make stabilization permanent.

The URV-Stablecoin Connection: History Repeating

Characteristic	Brazil URV (1994)	Venezuela USDT (2025)	Parallel
Function	Stable unit of account indexed to USD	USD-pegged stablecoin on blockchain	Identical
Adoption	70% of prices in URV within 4 months	34% of retail in stablecoins, 80% of crypto = USDT	Similar pace
Government role	Government-designed and mandated	Organic, bottom-up adoption despite government	Inverted
Settlement	Pay in cruzeiros, price in URV	Pay in USDT/Bs hybrid, price in USD equivalent	Functionally same
Inertia breaking	Deliberately designed to break indexation	Accidentally breaking it — people think in dollars	Same effect
Transition to new currency	URV → Real on July 1, 1994	USDT → Formal dollarization or new currency?	Awaiting policy

Stablecoin-Powered Stabilization: Venezuela's Unique Advantage

Venezuela is the world's first country where stablecoins are organically replacing the national currency at scale. USDT accounts for 80% of all crypto activity. PDVSA settles ~$12B/yr in oil exports via USDT. 34% of retail transactions use stablecoins. 60% of Venezuelans lack bank access — stablecoins ARE the banking system. This is the digital version of Brazil's URV: the population has already shifted its unit of account to a dollar-pegged instrument. The government can either fight this (and lose) or formalize it as the foundation of a new monetary framework.

Crypto Volume (2024)

$20B

+110% year-over-year

USDT Share of Crypto

80%

Dominant stablecoin

Retail in Stablecoins

34%

Highest in Latin America

P2P Share

38%

Bypasses banking entirely

Unbanked Population

60%+

Stablecoins fill the gap

PDVSA in USDT

~$12B

~80% of oil exports settle in USDT

Sub-$1K Transactions

47%

Grassroots, not speculation

Grocery Crypto (2026 proj)

10%

Major chains accepting crypto

Venezuela Stablecoin Economy: Current Penetration

Stablecoin vs Traditional: Cost & Speed

Three Stablecoin-Based Stabilization Paths

Path A: Formalize Organic Dollarization via Stablecoins

The "Ecuador 2.0" Digital Path

Legalize USDT/USDC as legal tender alongside the bolivar — recognize what's already happening on the ground
Require government tax collection in stablecoins or USD — this forces the state to live within its means (can't print USDT)
License crypto exchanges as banks: Binance, Reserve, and local P2P platforms become the regulated payment infrastructure for the 60% unbanked
PDVSA oil revenue already settles in USDT — channel it directly into a transparent stabilization fund on-chain
Phase out the bolivar over 24 months as stablecoin adoption reaches >80% of transactions

RISK: Monetary sovereignty lost | BENEFIT: Fastest path, zero BCV credibility needed

Path B: Digital URV — Stablecoin as Bridge Currency

The "Plano Real 2.0" Path

Create a government-backed stablecoin (not the failed Petro) — 100% backed by USDT/USDC reserves held in transparent multisig wallets
Dual-pricing mandate: all goods priced in both bolivar and the new digital unit (like Brazil's URV). The stablecoin is the stable reference
Daily bolivar adjustment: the BCV publishes a daily bolivar/stablecoin rate (like the URV/cruzeiro rate), making inflation visible but the stable price constant
After 3-6 months, when 70%+ of prices are denominated in the stablecoin unit, swap to a new currency pegged to it
On-chain transparency: reserves backing the stablecoin are publicly auditable in real-time — impossible for the BCV to cheat (unlike traditional currency boards)

ADVANTAGE: Preserves nominal sovereignty while importing dollar stability via crypto rails

Path C: Hybrid Currency Board with Stablecoin Reserves

The "Crypto Currency Board" Path

New bolivar issued under strict currency board rules: every Bs in circulation = $1 in reserves
Reserves held in stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on-chain, not in traditional bank accounts subject to seizure or sanctions
Smart contract enforcement: the money supply cap is enforced by code, not by BCV officials who have zero credibility
Proof-of-reserves published every block — anyone can verify the backing ratio in real-time
Gradual de-peg: once institutions are rebuilt and inflation is below 5%, transition to managed float with inflation targeting

INNOVATION: "Code is law" replaces institutional trust that doesn't exist — trustless monetary policy

Why Stablecoins Are Venezuela's Best Tool (vs Traditional Dollarization)

Factor	Traditional Dollarization (Ecuador model)	Stablecoin-Based Dollarization	Advantage
Physical cash needed	Requires $5-10B in physical USD bills to circulate	Zero — digital wallets on smartphones	Stablecoin
Sanctions risk	USD transactions can be blocked by US Treasury/SWIFT	P2P stablecoins harder to sanction; USDT = offshore USD	Stablecoin
Banking infrastructure	Requires functioning banks (60% unbanked in VZ)	Smartphone = bank. 38% already use P2P crypto	Stablecoin
Transparency	Central bank reports (BCV has hidden data for years)	On-chain reserves visible to everyone in real-time	Stablecoin
Speed of adoption	12-24 months for full transition	Already happening — 34% of retail, 80% of crypto	Stablecoin
Remittances	Western Union fees 10-50%	USDT transfer costs <$1, settles in minutes	Stablecoin
Government manipulation	CB can be pressured to break the peg (Argentina 2001)	Smart contracts enforce rules — no human override	Stablecoin
Monetary sovereignty	Fully surrendered to the US Fed	Can create sovereign stablecoin backed by basket (Path B/C)	Depends on path

Warning: The Petro Lesson (What NOT To Do)

Venezuela already tried a government cryptocurrency: the Petro (2018). It failed catastrophically because it was: (1) not actually backed by oil despite claims, (2) not transparent — no proof of reserves, no open blockchain, (3) forced on people via decree rather than adopted voluntarily, (4) used to circumvent sanctions rather than to stabilize the economy. The key insight: a government stablecoin ONLY works if it's (a) transparently backed 1:1 by real assets that anyone can audit, (b) adopted voluntarily, and (c) designed to stabilize, not to circumvent constraints. USDT succeeds where the Petro failed precisely because no government controls it.

Recommended: Path B (Digital URV) → Path A (Full Crypto-Dollarization)

Step 1: Formalize USDT (Month 1)

Legal tender status for USDT/USDC. License P2P exchanges. Require tax payment in stablecoins. This costs $0 and leverages existing adoption.

Step 2: Dual Pricing (Months 2-6)

Mandate dual pricing in Bs and USDT (Brazil URV model). Daily BCV rate publication. Bolivar floats freely. People gradually shift reference to USDT.

Step 3: Sovereign Stablecoin (Month 6)

Launch VES-Stable: 100% backed by USDC reserves in transparent multisig. On-chain proof of reserves. This is the "Real" to USDT's "URV".

Step 4: Bolivar Sunset (Month 12-24)

Phase out old bolivar. The economy runs on VES-Stable + USDT/USDC. BCV becomes a reserve manager, not a money printer. Smart contracts prevent backsliding.

Projected Stablecoin Adoption Path (%)

Stablecoin vs Bolivar: Trust & Usage Trajectory

The Hyperinflation Kill Chain: 6-Phase Strategy

Based on successful stabilizations in Israel (1985), Brazil (1994 Plano Real), Ecuador (2000 dollarization), and Argentina (2024 Milei), this strategy adapts proven mechanisms to Venezuela's unique conditions — plus the stablecoin revolution that gives Venezuela a tool no previous country had. USDT is already Venezuela's de facto URV: 80% of crypto, 34% of retail, $12B in PDVSA settlements. The key insight: hyperinflation is always a fiscal problem wearing a monetary disguise. Fix the fiscal root, then use stablecoins as the credible monetary anchor.

Phase 1: Emergency Stabilization (Months 1-3)

Stop the Bleeding

Freeze BCV monetary financing to government: legally prohibit the central bank from purchasing government securities or lending to the treasury (the #1 cause of money creation)
Emergency fiscal adjustment: eliminate gasoline subsidies ($5B+/yr cost), rationalize public payroll, freeze non-essential spending
Unify exchange rates immediately: close the 48% gap between official (96.86) and market (138.98) rates. Let the rate float to a market-clearing level
Temporary price-income accord (Israel 1985 model): negotiate a 90-day freeze on wages, prices, and key tariffs to break inertial expectations
Emergency IMF Article IV consultation to signal commitment and unlock technical assistance

TARGET: Monthly inflation from 22% to under 10% within 90 days

Phase 2: Monetary Anchor (Months 3-6)

Establish Credible Monetary Framework

Formalize stablecoin dollarization (Digital URV model): grant USDT/USDC legal tender status — leverage the 34% retail adoption and 80% crypto dominance that already exists. This is the "Plano Real 2.0" path
Dual-pricing mandate (Brazil URV model): all goods priced in both Bs and USDT. Daily BCV rate publication. People already think in dollars — make it official. 70%+ will shift within 3 months
Launch sovereign stablecoin (VES-Stable): 100% backed by USDC in transparent on-chain multisig. Smart contracts enforce 1:1 backing — impossible for BCV to manipulate. This becomes the "Real" to USDT's "URV"
Crypto Currency Board: if sovereign stablecoin chosen, enforce reserve ratio via smart contracts. Proof-of-reserves published every block. Code replaces institutional trust that doesn't exist
Recapitalize the BCV: inject $2-3B from PDVSA USDT oil revenue or IMF lending. Transform BCV from money printer into reserve manager. Float interest rates positive to rebuild banking

TARGET: Kill inflationary expectations | New monetary anchor operational

Phase 3: Fiscal Restructuring (Months 6-18)

Fix the Root Cause

Tax reform: broaden VAT base (currently $275M/mo), modernize ISLR collection, introduce property taxes, digitize customs to reduce evasion
PDVSA restructuring: ring-fence oil revenue in a sovereign wealth fund (Norway model). Allocate 60% to budget, 30% to debt service, 10% to stabilization fund
External debt restructuring: negotiate with creditors (Rothschild already retained). Target 60-70% haircut on $154B debt to bring ratio below 80% of GDP
Eliminate fiscal dominance: the deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. Create an independent fiscal council with veto power over excess spending
Public enterprise reform: audit all 500+ state-owned companies, privatize non-strategic ones, corporatize PDVSA with independent board

TARGET: Primary fiscal balance | Debt/GDP path to <80% by 2035

Phase 4: Supply-Side Recovery (Months 12-36)

Rebuild Productive Capacity

Oil sector revival: open PDVSA to private investment (new Hydrocarbons Law). Target 1.5M bpd by Year 2, 2.0M by Year 3 (from current 1.05M)
Property rights restoration: reverse expropriations or provide fair compensation. Create secure land registries
Trade liberalization: eliminate import licenses, reduce tariffs to regional averages (10-15%), join Pacific Alliance trade bloc
Banking sector recapitalization: current M2 is only $3B (3.3% of GDP) — banking system is nearly non-functional. Invite international banks to establish operations
Human capital recovery: incentivize return of 7.7M diaspora through tax holidays, skill-matching programs, and housing assistance

TARGET: GDP growth 5-8% | Oil production 1.5M bpd | M2/GDP > 20%

Phase 5: Institutional Rebuilding (Months 18-48)

Build Durable Institutions

Independent judiciary: essential for enforcing contracts, property rights, and anti-corruption — prerequisite for FDI
Transparent statistics: BCV must publish monthly CPI, GDP, monetary data (currently withheld or delayed for years)
Anti-corruption framework: FATF compliance, beneficial ownership registries, public procurement transparency
Sovereign wealth fund: lock away oil windfall profits (the empty $3M Macroeconomic Stabilization Fund must be rebuilt to $5-10B)
Inflation targeting regime (long-term): once dollarization stabilizes expectations, transition to IT framework with 3-5% annual target

TARGET: Inflation < 20% | Stable institutions | Rule of law index improvement

Phase 6: Sustained Growth (Year 4+)

Venezuela 2030 Vision

Economic diversification: reduce oil dependency from ~95% to <60% of exports via mining (gold, iron, bauxite), agriculture, tourism, tech
Regional financial integration: access to international capital markets (currently locked out since 2017 default)
Diaspora bonds: Israel and India model — issue USD-denominated bonds to the 7.7M diaspora for infrastructure investment
Digital economy infrastructure: leap-frog to mobile payments, digital banking, reduce cash dependency
Social safety nets: replace distortionary subsidies with targeted cash transfers (Bolsa Familia model), reduce poverty from 90% to <40%

TARGET: Inflation < 10% | GDP > $150B | Poverty < 40% | Investment grade

Critical Path Timeline

Day 1-90: Shock Therapy

Ban monetary financing, unify FX rate, emergency fiscal cut, price-income pact. This is the "cold turkey" moment — every successful stabilization started with a credible, immediate shock.

Month 3-12: Anchor & Reform

Implement dollarization/currency board, recapitalize BCV, begin debt restructuring with creditors. Secure $5-10B IMF/multilateral support package.

Year 1-3: Rebuild

PDVSA reform and oil production ramp, tax system modernization, trade liberalization, banking recapitalization. Target return to international capital markets.

Year 3-5: Sustain & Diversify

Transition to inflation targeting, build sovereign wealth fund, economic diversification, diaspora return programs. Target single-digit inflation permanently.

The Non-Negotiable Prerequisite

No stabilization program in history has succeeded without political commitment. Israel's 1985 plan worked because the government, Histadrut (labor), and business all agreed to sacrifice. Argentina's Convertibility worked for a decade because Menem committed fully. Ecuador's dollarization worked because it was irreversible. Venezuela's program requires: (1) genuine political will to stop using the BCV as a piggy bank, (2) willingness to accept short-term GDP contraction of 5-10% during stabilization, (3) international support conditional on real reform. Without these, no technical solution can work — the BCV's balance sheet is merely the symptom. The disease is fiscal and institutional.

Historical Hyperinflation Stabilizations: Lessons for Venezuela

Country	Year	Peak Inflation	Method	Key Action	Time to <10%	Outcome
Germany	1923	29,500%/mo	New currency (Rentenmark)	Backed by land/industrial assets, strict money supply cap	~2 months	Success
Israel	1985	450%/yr	Heterodox shock	Fiscal cut + price/wage freeze + US aid + CB independence	~12 months	Success
Bolivia	1985	23,000%/yr	Orthodox shock (Sachs plan)	Fiscal austerity + unified FX rate + tin mine closures	~3 months	Success
Argentina	1991	3,000%/yr	Currency board	1:1 peso-dollar peg, full reserve backing, privatizations	~6 months	10yr then collapse
Brazil	1994	2,500%/yr	Plano Real (URV)	Virtual USD-indexed unit of account → gradual price migration → currency swap. No freeze. Fiscal adjustment first. 50.7%/mo → 0.96% in 90 days	~3 months	Gold standard
Ecuador	2000	96%/yr	Full dollarization	Adopted USD as sole legal tender, eliminated CB money creation	~18 months	Success
Zimbabwe	2009	79.6B%/mo	Multi-currency / dollarization	Abandoned ZWD, adopted USD/ZAR as legal tender	~1 month	Partial (re-inflated 2019)
Argentina	2024-25	290%/yr	Milei shock / crawling peg	Fiscal surplus, deregulation, 50% devaluation, spending cuts	~10 months	In progress - working
Venezuela	2025-26	238-548%/yr	TBD	Requires all of the above: fiscal + monetary + structural	Est. 6-18 mo	Not yet started

Venezuela vs Successful Stabilizations (Inflation Path)

Preconditions Scorecard

What Venezuela Can Learn from Each Case

From Brazil (1994) — The Master Template

The URV proved you can break hyperinflation WITHOUT freezing prices — just change the unit of account. USDT is already doing this in Venezuela organically. Formalize it: dual pricing (Bs + USDT), let 70%+ migrate, then swap. Brazil's 50.7%→0.96%/mo in 90 days is the target to beat.

From Israel (1985)

The heterodox element works: combine monetary tightening with a temporary price-income pact to break inertial expectations. External financial support (US gave Israel $1.5B) is critical to absorb the transition shock.

From Stablecoins (2025) — The New Tool

No previous stabilization had access to borderless, transparent, programmable money. Smart contracts can enforce currency board rules without relying on institutions. On-chain proof of reserves eliminates the trust problem. USDT remittances at <$1 vs Western Union's 50% fees. Venezuela can leapfrog traditional dollarization entirely.

From Ecuador (2000)

Full dollarization is Venezuela's most credible option because: (a) the economy is already ~65% dollarized de facto, (b) institutional weakness means a currency board would lack credibility, (c) it's irreversible, which forces fiscal discipline.

From Argentina (2024)

Milei's success shows that even deep political resistance can be overcome with a clear mandate and immediate, visible results. Fiscal surplus in month 1 was the signal that broke expectations. Venezuela needs a similar "credibility shock."

From Zimbabwe (Warning)

Dollarization without institutional reform is temporary. Zimbabwe re-introduced its currency in 2019 and re-inflated. Venezuela must pair dollarization with deep institutional reforms to prevent backsliding.

When a Central Bank Fails,the Blockchain Becomes the Central Bank

Banco Central de Venezuela